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ronin1
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Posted: Saturday February 11th, 2006 06:17 am |
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Age differences…
Age differences is an often a very controversial subject. Age differences can be an attribute of a relationship or a requirement for one. It can also be the difference between a real marriage relationship, sponsorship relationship or GCG relationship.
Agency info and/or profile data often suggests that 20 to 25 year differences are not only possible but acceptable to RW. The fact is that this idea is misleading. To get a true understanding of where the truth lies is by looking at this question from all view-points.
All things being equal, RW prefer husbands to be about their age. Unfortunately, with the lack of eligible RM, IMO it is more like ~ 2 to ~7 years for the top 20% of RW. The reminder of RW will have to have to go with perhaps less reliable husbands or consider a foreign husband.
Lets take a look at the demographics. Russia’s total population stands at about 145 million. In the RW age range that most AM are interested in (22 to 32 y. o.), there are about 10 million. If we apply the 20/80 rule, the top 20% (~ two million) RW are already taken (that’s most of the ‘9s’ and ‘10s’). IMO, it is at this break point where many of the RW decide to pursue the option of a foreign husband. At the RW ‘6’, ‘7’ and ‘8’ levels, the RW are smart, educated and beautiful enough to be successful at attracting AM.
I’m not saying that RW that come to America are not the crème of the crop. Once the RW fly to America, one has to remember that there is a conversion rate. IMO, all RW upon entry are bumped up by 2 notches, thus making them ‘8s’, ‘9s’ and ‘10s’. This is when they rise and shine the most in their poise, femininity and attitude... a pure joy to behold.
Back to the stats… This accounts for ~3 million RW. Applying the 20/80 rule again, about 600,000 are not married or cohabitating . Of this, using the 20/80 rule (I know it’s beginning to sound like a broken record), 120,000 believe that a foreign husband is a real serious option to pursue. Unfortunately, Russia is a vast land and perhaps 80% of is not desirable for an AM to visit. This brings the total to 24,000 Going by this line of thought only 4% of the RW that actively seek a foreign husband will find them, this brings the total to ~960 per year.
Out of the stats, the important thing to note is that 1 of 25 RW that are actively seeking actually find a foreign husband. This puts pressure to accept the profile of the average man that has enough drive to visit Russia. If we can assume that the median age of a visiting AM is ~47 and the RW age range of interest is 22 to 32, then it is clear that the likely potential age differences are from 15 to 25 years (average of 20yrs).
However accepting it and living with it can be two different animals. IMO, a successful AM/RW marriage is being married over 5 years. From the couples I know locally, the average age difference is ~18.4 years (this matches well with the above stated average age difference of 20years). I would consider most (90%) to be successful (though many haven’t reached the 5 yr mark yet). The couples that are not successful I would attribute high age differences as a contributing or indirect factor.
If one were to accept this reasoning, assumptions and limited observations, one can conclude that if all things being equal and one fits the average AM visiting profile and has a RW with an ~18.4 year age difference, one has a ~90% probability of having a successful marriage to year five. These odds don’t sound bad at all, As a matter of fact they are very good odds.
Ronin
References:
Princeton
USCIS
Last edited on Saturday March 4th, 2006 05:29 am by ronin1
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Bunker Mulligan
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Posted: Thursday February 16th, 2006 02:22 pm |
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ronin,
While I wouldn't try to argue the point with you, I think your 18.4 year average is applicable only to AM/RW marriages. Certainly those numbers would be viewed as outside the norm, even laughable, among prospective RW/RM marriage partners.
While I was living in Russia, virtually every married Russian woman I met at some social event or other, had a single friend, or a single cousin or sister they were interested in having me meet. The second question out of their mouth was to find out how old I was so they could do their mental matchmaking, I was never introduced to a woman more than 5-8 years younger than myself unless she was really homely and desperate.
I think that "20 year" rule you allude to is more in keeping with MOB agency myth and fantasy, as well as indicative of just how far some women will go to escape a life with little promise if she stayed at home. I don't know of a single Russian marriage that spans a full generation. It is not a "cultural" norm among Russians.
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ronin1
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Posted: Saturday February 18th, 2006 02:53 am |
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Bunker,
Laughable, yes I agree with that on a numerical basis. Still on average AM that visit Russia look significantly younger that their Russian counterparts. The mis-match in age of WM/RW couples is often masked by a their apparent age difference. This seems to be what is more important to RW.
When I first began to write this thread starter I assumed (as you did) that the MOB hype with 20 and up age differences was steering clients on a rail to a train wreck. Well, after doing the numbers and looking around in my local group of AM/RW couples, I was surprised at the out come. Actually I have additional couples' age differences that would bring the average and median age of my local group to ~20.5 years. Though my local group age difference may not be statistically significant, these are real numbers.
Perhaps, the agencies are doing well in getting their hype across to their clients. I don't know. All I can say for certain is that in my local group, an average age difference is ~20.5 years. An estimate of the average length of marrage is currently about 4 years. It is difficult for me to believe that the bulk of these couples will get divorced within one year. IMO, it would be fair to say that the majority of them will have successful marriages (using my 5 year definition).
I too have not seen a AM/RW marriage last one generation. Bare in mind that this phenomona of AM/RW marriages started in the early '90s. There really hasn't been enough time to tell one way or another about those early marriages. All I can say for certain is that there has been one divorce in my local group, however that was after 6 years of marriage.
Note, I haven't seen many AM/AW couples survive a generation as of late either.
Ronin
Last edited on Saturday February 25th, 2006 02:58 am by ronin1
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Bunker Mulligan
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Posted: Saturday February 18th, 2006 02:23 pm |
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Ron,
I think you misunderstood me, maybe it's my style of writing that needs improvement.
I consider 20 years to be "a generation". I do not know of a single RW/RM marriage that contains an age gap of a generation, or "spans" 20 years, and I know many Russian couples. Most age gaps are less than 5 years and I know a number of RW/RM marriages where the man is a few years younger than the wife. I also have some trouble with your comment about the RM looking 20 years older than their wives, or AM looking significantly younger than their RM counterpart. I've been to Russia over 30 times and spent many months abroad and I haven't noticed that as a trend. The 40 years old AM I've met in Russia look 40, and other than dress, hair style, and holding a few extra pounds, are indistinguishable from other white males walking down the street of similar ages.
It's just my experience, yours may be difference.
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ronin1
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Posted: Saturday February 18th, 2006 03:09 pm |
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Bunker,
Your quote:
I don't know of a single Russian marriage that spans a full generation.
Yes, I misunderstood you. I thought your "Russian marriage" was referring to AM/RW marriages, since your topic statement was talking about the MOB agencies. However, your quote stands on it's own and is quite correct.
Your quote:
I also have some trouble with your comment about the RM looking 20 years older than their wives, or AM looking significantly younger than their RM counterpart.
I certainly didn't say the former. The later is based on the hardships on the average RM. As you know the life expectance is 58 to 61 depending on the source. Rarely will RW marry a RM in their 50s for perhaps this reason but they will marry an AM in their 50s.
(Yes, they (RW) maybe just trying to escape as you have said. Yet on the other hand the opportunity to have a stable family, husband and home (the life goal of many RW) can also be just as plauable a motivating factor.)
But perhaps it's not just the chronological age but the apparent age the RW perceive. Also, in general, another factor that I didn't mention is that RW (living in Russia or the States) in their mid to later 20s start to accelerate in age relative to AW. This also, shortens the apparent age gap in AM/RW marriages. YMMV.
Ronin
Last edited on Saturday February 25th, 2006 02:59 am by ronin1
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Bunker Mulligan
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Posted: Saturday February 18th, 2006 04:06 pm |
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But perhaps it's not just the chronological age but the apparent age the RW perceive. Also, in general, another factor that I didn't mention is that RW (living in Russia or the States) in their mid to later 20s start to accelerate in age relative to AW. This also, shortens the apparent age gap in AM/RW marriages. YMMV.
My 40's years old wife would be saddened to hear you say that. She's still the best looking woman around and often attracts a lot of attention whenever she goes to the mall.
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ronin1
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Posted: Sunday February 19th, 2006 02:58 am |
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Bunker,
Don't make your wife sad. No need to tell her what I wrote .
Didn't I mention that the statement you are quoting from me is "in general", meaning that it doesn't apply to all? Also, I adding the YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary) which reinforces the "in general" claim. I'm surprised that you missed commenting on either one of the items in your response.
Regardless you are doing a good job keeping me on my toes.
Now that I know that you have the experience to back up what you are saying, is there anything that you would like to offer/share with the newbies that may wander into this forum... as far as age differences?
Ronin
Last edited on Saturday February 25th, 2006 02:59 am by ronin1
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Bunker Mulligan
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Posted: Sunday February 19th, 2006 02:16 pm |
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It has been a very long time since I was a newbie, if indeed I ever was one, I don't think I could instruct anyone on the "how to" of travel to Russia.
I think it is important that anyone contemplating a relationship or marriage with a Russian woman should try to learn as much about the culture and language as possible. Stumbling about in some backwater town in Russia or Ukraine for a week will not yield much in the way of cultural understanding at all. Most probably the first week in-country will be more confusing than revealing. I further believe that misinterpertation and misunderstanding are rampant when attempting to assign the values of our American culture to the same class in ethnic Russia. There are many potholes along that road. One must be very careful when making "general" statements because what you "see" is often not what you thought. Russia is a very complex society, with much hidden nuance and an unbelivable range of social strata. Without knowledge of the language and culture it is very hard to tell the cultured from the uncultured.
I wish anyone well in their pursuits, but the odds of success are long without proper preparations.
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ronin1
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Posted: Sunday February 19th, 2006 05:31 pm |
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Bunker,
Your quote:
I wish anyone well in their pursuits, but the odds of success are long without proper preparations.
Ditto on that comment. This is exactly what this forum is all about... preparation. With it, ones chances are dramatically improved. Without it, the tar pits of preconceived notions and misuderstandings can quickly end even a fundementally sound relationship.
Ronin
Last edited on Saturday February 25th, 2006 02:59 am by ronin1
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